Bahkmut Falls, Civil War in Sudan, and Contentious Elections in Turkey

The Ukrainian MOD released a recruitment ad on May 27th calling men to volunteer for service in the war against Russia to reclaim their lost territory. The video shows Ukrainian forces operating and training with a wide variety of Western equipment including Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks, M777 artillery pieces, HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), and a wide variety of small arms. This comes after Ukrainian forces were pushed out of the city of Bakhmut on May 20th by Wagner private military contractors (PMCs) in conjunction with regular Russian forces. Moscow has claimed victory over the decimated city after nine months of bloody fighting that cost the lives of at least 20,000 Wagner mercenaries according to their leader Prigizorgn in an interview with a Russian mil-blogger Wargonzo. The brutal and grinding capture of Bakhmut marks the only significant success of a Russian offensive that started in January which faced stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces; repelled at almost every axis of advance. However, Russian operations have reduced in tempo as they prepare to receive a Ukrainian offensive in the coming weeks or months. Russia has ramped up attacks on Ukrainian cities with guided munitions and long-range Iranian kamikaze drones in an attempt to disrupt the staging operation for the upcoming offensive, the Ukrainian MOD reports that air defenses intercept the vast majority of strikes. 

Fighting continues in Sudan despite a ceasefire signed on the 22nd by both Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces. The ceasefire is a desperate attempt to allow for the passage of humanitarian aid to embattled civilians living inside the capital city of Khartoum without food or water. The United States and Saudi Arabia have worked with the U.N. to facilitate talks and reach a lasting peace agreement however little progress has been made. Both sides continue to accuse the other of various violations and retaliations that put the agreement in a weak position.

After the brutal Islamic dictator, Omar al-Bashir was deposed in 2019; both the SAF and RSF have sought to consolidate power inside Sudan. De-facto head of state, General Burhan sought to establish the RSF as a subordinate branch under the armed forces but this failed when hostilities flared up in mid-April. Mr. Dagalo leads the RSF with his significant wealth from gold mines and has been acting autonomously inside Sudan since 2019. While RSF forces had surprise, experience, and numbers the SAF has been using its armored and air assets to hold the RSF inside the capital. Hundreds have been reported killed and reports of RSF violence on civilian populations are spreading.  While fighting remains subdued various U.N. agencies work hard to supply the estimated 24.7 million Sudanese people in desperate need of humanitarian aid. Delivery of supplies donated by Member States has been organized by UNICEF and the World Food Programme (WFP) which reached 500,000 people during May. Unfortunately, 49 cases of rape and abuse by RSF forces on civilians in areas they control have been reported which RSF officials deny. The conflict has killed 705 people and injured more than 5,000, hospitals struggle to maintain quality care without power, and a rise in infant fatalities has been reported. 

The second round of Turkish presidential elections ended with a victory for current president Erdogan on May 28th. This follows a first round of votes where Erdogan failed to attain a majority vote against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu causing elections to run off between the two candidates. While polling showed a slight lead for Kilicdaroglu, the 20-year incumbent maintained his seat as the head of the Turkish government. Kılıçdaroğlu had promised to realign Turkey more with the EU and NATO while balancing its relationship with Russia, institutionalizing foreign policy decisions, and pursuing a less interventionist security posture. Interestingly, Russian meddling played a role after Kılıçdaroğlu accused Russia of spreading a deep fake associating him with the Kurdish Workers Party to weaken support amongst his crucial nationalist base. This is the closest election since Erdogan rose to power and it showed that some cracks are beginning to form in his increasingly centralized control over Turkey.